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Aria Bendix
Updated
2020-02-27T21:16:00Z
- No city is entirely safe from natural disasters, but a some are better positioned to avoid them than others.
- We asked 12 climate scientists where they would consider living to avoid climate change.
- Cities like Portland, Tulsa, and Minneapolis ranked among the preferred locations.
- Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
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United Nations scientists predict that we haveonly a decade left to avoid the worst effects of climate change — sweltering heatwaves, violent hurricanes, and larger, more frequent wildfires.
Climate change is already be impacting where people in the US choose to move. A 2017 study found that American homes that are vulnerable to rising seas sell for around 7% less than similar unexposed properties— even though the damage could be decades away.
To figure out what areas are least vulnerable to natural disasters in the future, we asked 12 climate scientists where they would consider living to avoid climate change. All were quick to note that no area is entirely safe, but a few cities could be less vulnerable than the rest.
Here are the cities they said are the least vulnerable to disaster.
Tulsa, Oklahoma is not threatened by sea-level rise.
Cities like Miami are likely to see flooding become more intense and frequent, Richard Alley, a climate science professor at Pennsylvania State University, told Business Insider. Ifthe West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapses rapidly, he said, global sea levels could increase by 4 to 5 meters in the next 100 years.
Tulsa, Oklahoma, however, is not vulnerable to that threat. In addition to its locational advantage, Tulsa has gone to great lengths to protect itself from flooding. Following a devastating storm in 1984, the city installed a number of detention ponds, which retain water in the wake of a storm. Tulsa also paid to either transport or destroy around 1,000 homes that had been damaged. As a result, its flood-insurance rates went from the highest in the nation to among the lowest.
Hartford, Connecticut is also not vulnerable to sea-level rise.
In a 2016 study, climate sociologist Mathew Hauer pinpointed the US cities that had the most residents likely to be affected by 6 feet of sea-level rise by 2100.
"When we first started working on that project, 6 feet was considered the highest high by the end of the century," Hauer told Business Insider. "Now it's 10 feet."
His study predicted that cities like Miami and New Orleans would see "catastrophic impacts."
"When you start tacking on storm surges, tidal flooding, all those other associated events, the numbers get much larger," Hauer said.
Hartford, Connecticut, however, is relatively safe thanks to its inland location and small population size (around 124,000 people).
Even if Boulder, Colorado gets hit by a major drought in the next 10 years, the city won't run out of water.
Two of the top criteria for avoiding the threat of sea-level rise are high elevation and a location in the middle of the country, Camilo Mora, an associate professor at the University of Hawaii, told Business Insider. To avoid environmental disasters, Mora said, people should look for places where they can live self-sufficiently, with an independent agricultural system and a body of water that doesn't depend on melting ice.
While Mora didn't identify a single city that best meets these criteria, Boulder, Colorado, fits the bill. It's far from the coast and has an altitude of more than 5,300 feet.
Boulder has also carefully monitored its water usage to account for changes in weather. Even if the city expands, officials have found, it will own enough water rights to meet residents' demands through 2030.
San Diego, California has the best all-around weather compared to other major cities.
San Diego may be exposed to rising seas, but its coastal location gives it a host of other advantages. According to research from Sarah Kapnick, a climate scientist at Princeton University, San Diego may have the most ideal weather of any US city.
Kapnick studied "mild weather" days in the US — those suited for outdoor activities, with low precipitation, low humidity, and temperatures between 64 and 86 degrees Fahrenheit — and found that summers are becoming hotter and more humid. By the end of the century, she discovered, cities in West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico could lose weeks of mild weather due to climate change.
This wasn't the case in San Diego, however, which currently boasts 180 days of mild weather per year. By comparison, Los Angeles gets 157, New York has 83, and Boston sees just 76.
In the future, San Diego could see even better weather: Kapnick's study predicts the city will gain three mild days per year by the end of the century. A concern for San Diego, however, is the loss of precipitation, which can raise the risk of drought and wildfire. Those are threats that nearly all California cities face.
Sacramento, California may be vulnerable to wildfires, but it could still be one of the safest places to avoid the cumulative effects of natural disasters.
According to Vivek Shandas, an urban-planning professor at Portland State University, Sacramento ranks among the cities that are least vulnerable to the cumulative effects of hurricanes, sea level rise, tornadoes, flooding, droughts, landslides, and wildfires.
The city is less than two hours outside San Francisco and is developing strategiesto preparefor the effects of climate change.
Michael Anderson, the state climatologist at California's Department of Water Resources, said some northern California cities are less vulnerable to extreme heat, too.
"Just by latitude, you're in a cooler climate," he said. "You have the marine layer — colder waters coming down from the north that modulate the temperature."
Minnesota's twin cities of Minneapolis and Saint Paul are relatively sheltered from hurricanes and floods.
Minneapolis may be known for its harsh winters, but the city is not likely to get much colder than it is already, according to David Robinson, New Jersey's state climatologist and a professor at Rutgers University.
Robinson said Minneapolis could be ideal for those looking to avoid the harshest effects of climate change.
While Minneapolis may be susceptible to droughts and thunderstorms, its northern, inland location makes it less vulnerable to hurricanes and flooding. Hurricanes are among the most destructive natural disasters; in the US they primarily threaten those along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic seaboard.
Robinson also said summers in Minneapolis probably won't get as persistently hot as in other cities.
The inland location of Charlotte, North Carolina makes it less vulnerable to hurricanes.
While North Carolina has suffered through its fair share of hurricanes, Louisiana state climatologistBarry Keim said Charlotte is the least vulnerable city when it comes to the overall effects of climate change.
It's far enough inland to avoid the worst of the Atlantic hurricane season, which could get more severe as the climate continues to change. The city's climate is also mild, with a mean annual temperature of around 60 degrees Fahrenheit. While most cities are getting hotter as a result of climate change, Charlotte has actually begun to cool downover time.
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania could experience less extreme cold in the future.
The fact that the Midwest has seen seen its population decline in recent decades is "somewhat ironic," John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist and a professor at Texas A&M University, told Business Insider.
"Not only will the Midwest avoid many of the bad effects of climate change, it will experience most of the good effects: less extreme cold and a longer growing season," Nielsen-Gammon said.
One city in particular that stands to benefit is Pittsburgh, which Nielsen-Gammon said is "safe from hurricanes" and unlikely to experience drought. In 2018, the Pittsburgh City Council approved an ambitious new climate plantoreduce carbon emissions.
Portland, Oregon could become a refuge for climate migrants.
For those unwilling to give up on a coast, Portland may be ideal. Compared to other coastal states, Oregon faces less property at risk because of sea-level rise and less physical area exposed, Kristy Dahl, a climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, told Business Insider.
It's also less vulnerable to hurricanes compared to cities along the East and Gulf Coasts, according to Astrid Caldas, a senior climate scientist at UCS.
He travels to dozens of cities each year, Shandas said, but few rival Portland's ability to withstand major climate events. A 2011 report from Portland State University echoed that— it predicted that the Willamette Valley would become a refuge for people looking to escape the harsh effects of climate change.
In 1993, Portland became the firstUS city to devise a plan for cutting carbon, vowing to reduce local carbon emissions by 80% by 2050. The city is also a recipient of theC40 Cities award, which recognizes the world's most inspiring and innovative cities tackling climate change.
Unfortunately, Hawaii is expected to see more frequent and intense tropical storms, so scientists don't recommend living there.
Hiro Murakami, an associate research scholar at Princeton who studies hurricane and cyclone forecasting, said it's far easier to predict which cities are vulnerable to these natural disasters than name specific places that will be immune to them.
Murakami warned that people should not move to the Hawaiian Islands. In a 2013 study, he predicted that Hawaii's tropical storm frequency would double by the next century.
But Caldas said there's no one-size-fits-all recommendation when it comes to minimizing climate risk.
"One may move away from the coast, only to find that inland floods are a problem. One may move from the south seeking cooler climates only to be hit by extreme precipitation, or drought, or wildfires," she said. "Each person or community needs to weigh all the factors carefully and choose their level of risk-taking."
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FAQs
What part of the US is safest from climate change? ›
- Seattle, Washington. Like San Francisco, Seattle doesn't expect to see a drastic increase in days with extreme heat or high heat and humidity. ...
- Columbus, Ohio. ...
- Minneapolis, Minnesota. ...
- Baltimore, Maryland. ...
- Portland, Oregon. ...
- Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. ...
- Richmond, Virginia. ...
- Houston, Texas.
Yes, the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists – 97 percent – agree that humans are causing global warming and climate change.
What does the majority of climate scientists believe is the cause of the current? ›The greenhouse gases contribute to the greenhouse effect by absorbing infrared radiation from the piles of the earth's surface. Climate scientists believe that the enhancement of the greenhouse effect is the major cause of climate change on earth.
Where is the best place to live to avoid climate change? ›Vermont is the best state to move to avoid climate change. At-risk homeowners can minimize threats and save money by future-proofing their homes.
Where is the safest place to live in USA? ›Naperville, Illinois, retained its No. 1 rank as the safest city overall ($156 per capita); St. Louis, Missouri, also kept its rank as the most dangerous city, with the highest per capita crime ($8,457). Mass shootings represented 4% of the total cost of crime in 2021, but are up 33% compared to 2020.
Where is the safest place to live in America? ›- Glens Falls, New York. The Glens Falls MSA includes Warren and Washington counties. ...
- Midland, Michigan. ...
- State College, Pennsylvania. ...
- The Villages, Florida. ...
- 5. Logan, Utah. ...
- Wausau, Wisconsin. ...
- Cambridge, Massachusetts. ...
- Elizabethtown, Kentucky.
What happens if we do nothing to stop climate change? If we do not take further action to stop climate impacts we're already experiencing, the planet is likely to see global temperatures rise by 2-4 °C (3-7 °F) by the end of the century.
How long until climate change is irreversible? ›of aggressive climate change policies is that humanity is always about 10 years away from either catastrophic climate change, or some greenhouse gas emission “tipping point” at which such change will become inevitable.
Why climate change is a threat? ›Humans and wild animals face new challenges for survival because of climate change. More frequent and intense drought, storms, heat waves, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and warming oceans can directly harm animals, destroy the places they live, and wreak havoc on people's livelihoods and communities.
Who suffers the most because of climate change? ›- Afghanistan. ...
- Bangladesh. ...
- Chad. ...
- Haiti. ...
- Kenya. ...
- Malawi. ...
- Niger. ...
- Pakistan.
Who is the biggest cause of climate change? ›
Human activity, such as burning fossil fuels and changing how we use the land, is the leading cause of climate change.
What is the biggest cause of climate change now? ›Fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – are by far the largest contributor to global climate change, accounting for over 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions.
Where will be the safest place to live in 2050? ›Michigan, says globalization expert. A new book examining the forces shaping the future of global migration forecasts Michigan as the best place in the world to live in 2050.
What is the best climate to live in USA? ›The No. 1 city with the best weather in the U.S.? Honolulu, Hawaii. Honolulu took the top spot with an average annual temperature of 77.7 degrees. While the city endures an average of 93 rainy days per year, it also averages 90 sunny days and zero days where the temperature dips below freezing.
Where is the best place to live in us with climate change? ›Sacramento, California is the best place to live for climate change in 2022. 60% of the top 10 places to live in the U.S. for climate change are in California.
What's the safest place to live in the world? ›- Switzerland. #1 in Safe. #1 in Best Countries Overall. ...
- Denmark. #2 in Safe. #10 in Best Countries Overall. ...
- New Zealand. #3 in Safe. #11 in Best Countries Overall. ...
- Norway. #4 in Safe. #13 in Best Countries Overall. ...
- Sweden. #5 in Safe. #5 in Best Countries Overall. ...
- Finland. #6 in Safe. ...
- Canada. #7 in Safe. ...
- Netherlands. #8 in Safe.
Atlanta, Georgia is the best place to live in the U.S. in 2022 because of its booming jobs market and eye on equality.
What is the safest state to live in lowest crime? ›- New Jersey. New Jersey is the safest state in the U.S., according to our results. ...
- New Hampshire. New Hampshire recorded the lowest murder rate in the U.S. during 2020, at less than 1 per 100,000 people. ...
- Maine. ...
- Massachusetts. ...
- Vermont. ...
- Connecticut. ...
- Rhode Island. ...
- Idaho.
Augusta, a small city near Georgia's border with South Carolina, is one of the cheapest and safest places to live in the USA. It has a low crime rate and a low cost of living, making it perfect for those looking to live comfortably and save money.
What is the number 1 safest country to live in? ›1. Iceland. Iceland, the land of fire and ice, is also the safest country in the world according to the Global Peace Index. With a low homicide rate, low level of violent crime, and limited access to small arms, Iceland is truly a peaceful country for its residents and visitors.
How long does humanity have left? ›
How much time on Earth do we have left? The upshot: Earth has at least 1.5 billion years left to support life, the researchers report this month in Geophysical Research Letters.
Is it too late to stop global warming? ›Global average temperatures have risen and weather extremes have already seen an uptick, so the short answer to whether it's too late to stop climate change is: yes.
How will the world look like in 2050? ›By 2050 , the world's population will exceed at least 9 billion and by 2050 the population of India will exceed that of China. By 2050, about 75% of the world population will be living in cities. Then there will be buildings touching the sky and cities will be settled from the ground up.
Will there be another Ice Age? ›Will we enter into a new ice age? No. Even if the amount of radiation coming from the Sun were to decrease as it has before, it would not significantly affect the global warming coming from long-lived, human-emitted greenhouse gases.
Will humans survive climate change? ›The panel found that humans would suffer and, for the most part, adapt and survive. Not so the millions of species with which we share the planet. Under likely warming scenarios, virtually all the globe's coral reefs (which feed and otherwise benefit a billion people) will be gone.
What will climate change be like in 2030? ›AUnderstanding Global Warming of 1.5°C*
warming above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate.
- Save energy at home. ...
- Walk, bike, or take public transport. ...
- Eat more vegetables. ...
- Consider your travel. ...
- Throw away less food. ...
- Reduce, reuse, repair & recycle. ...
- Change your home's source of energy. ...
- Switch to an electric vehicle.
The potential future effects of global climate change include more frequent wildfires, longer periods of drought in some regions, and an increase in the duration and intensity of tropical storms.
How does climate change affect human health? ›The health effects of these disruptions include increased respiratory and cardiovascular disease, injuries and premature deaths related to extreme weather events, changes in the prevalence and geographical distribution of food- and water-borne illnesses and other infectious diseases, and threats to mental health.
How does climate change affect mental health? ›The mental health consequences of events linked to a changing global climate include mild stress and distress, high-risk coping behavior such as increased alcohol use and, occasionally, mental disorders such as depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress.
Can poor countries afford to be green? ›
The fight against climate change is much harder for them since much of the infrastructure is yet to be built in developing countries which is clearly difficult with the help of renewable energy. Even the basic minimum, in terms of universal well-being, would require much higher levels of energy.
What is the No 1 cause of climate change? ›Human activity is the main cause of climate change. People burn fossil fuels and convert land from forests to agriculture. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, people have burned more and more fossil fuels and changed vast areas of land from forests to farmland.
Who is the best at climate change? ›Based on the 2022 Climate Change Performance Index, Denmark was ranked as the country with the highest achievement in climate protection, followed by Sweden.
What are the 5 cause of climate change? ›Natural Causes of Climate Change
Over the course of Earth's existence, volcanic eruptions, fluctuations in solar radiation, tectonic shifts, and even small changes in our orbit have all had observable effects on planetary warming and cooling patterns.
- Change a light. ...
- Drive less. ...
- Recycle more. ...
- Check your tires. ...
- Use less hot water. ...
- Avoid products with a lot of packaging. ...
- Adjust your thermostat. ...
- Plant a tree.
Historical and Projected Temperature Trends in Florida
In the next 20 years, average summer temperatures are projected to rise above 83°F under both moderate and high emissions scenarios.
Hazard | State With Greatest Risk Overall | # of States' Greatest Risk |
---|---|---|
Wildfire | California | 1 |
Strong Wind | Minnesota | 2 |
Hail | Texas | 1 |
Coastal Flooding | New Jersey | 2 |
- The Maldives. Officially called The Republic of Maldives, this country is located in south Asia along the Indian Ocean. ...
- Kiribati. One of the countries most susceptible to climate change is Kiribati. ...
- Vanuatu. ...
- Solomon Island. ...
- Tuvalu. ...
- Samoa. ...
- Fiji Island. ...
- Nauru.
Overall, the top five best states concerning climate resilience are California, Maine, New York, Vermont and Massachusetts. The top five worst-ranking states were Nebraska, West Virginia, Mississippi, Alaska and, finally, Louisiana.
What type of climate do we live in United States? ›The climate of the United States is highly diverse, ranging from tropical conditions in south Florida and Hawaii to arctic and alpine conditions in Alaska and across the Rocky Mountains.
What city is most affected by climate change? ›
Among the metro areas that are the worst off are San Francisco, California; Cape Coral, Florida; New York City, New York; Long Island, New York; Oakland, California; and Phoenix, Arizona, the report found.
Will Texas become uninhabitable? ›If you live near the coast, Nielsen-Gammon said be prepared to deal with more issues more frequently. If you want to avoid problems, move further away from flood-prone areas. "There's nothing that's going to make Texas uninhabitable, but it's going to be an increasing set of tradeoffs," Nielsen-Gammon explained.
Which states will be most affected by sea level rise? ›- Sea level rise will shift coastlines — and property lines. ...
- The Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast stand to lose most.
A new book examining the forces shaping the future of global migration forecasts Michigan as the best place in the world to live in 2050.
Where is the best place to live climate Wise in the US? ›The No. 1 city with the best weather in the U.S.? Honolulu, Hawaii. Honolulu took the top spot with an average annual temperature of 77.7 degrees. While the city endures an average of 93 rainy days per year, it also averages 90 sunny days and zero days where the temperature dips below freezing.
Where is the most stable climate in the US? ›First place goes to San Francisco, with only two days of extreme heat and a low temperature just below freezing at 27 degrees. Second place goes to San Diego, followed by Los Angeles. Both have an average yearly temperature of 60 degrees with sunny days 70% of the year.
What countries are least likely to be affected by climate change? ›A paper published by the Anglia Ruskin University in the United Kingdom has identified five countries in geographical locations with “favourable starting conditions” that may allow them to be less touched by the effects of climate change: New Zealand, Iceland, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Ireland.
What is the safest place to live on earth? ›What is the safest place to live in the world? The safest place in the world is Iceland, which ranks number one on the 2022 Global Peace Index. Iceland, with a score of 1.107, has held this position on the GPI for over a decade.
Where is the safest part of the world to live? ›Iceland is the safest place to live in the world.
It ranks number one on the latest Global Peace Index, with a score of 1.107. Even better, it's held that same position for the last decade.
What state has the best weather? Many cities in southern and central California like San Diego and Santa Barbara have year-round temperatures typically between 60 and 85 degrees and see little rainfall, making California the state with the best weather!
Where is the cheapest place in the United States to live? ›
The cheapest places to live have a low cost of living in a number of areas, including housing, groceries and transportation. Mississippi has the overall lowest cost of living of any state. Kalamazoo, Michigan, has the lowest cost of living for any city in the U.S.
Which city in the US is expected to have the coldest temperature? ›1. Fairbanks, Alaska. With a minimum average temperature of about minus 17 degrees Fahrenheit, Fairbanks takes the cake as the coldest city in the U.S. The northernmost major city in Alaska, Fairbanks has seen record cold temperatures reaching minus 66 degrees in the past.
Which country has the best climate in the world? ›- Portugal. #1 in Pleasant climate. #26 in Best Countries Overall. ...
- Greece. #2 in Pleasant climate. #25 in Best Countries Overall. ...
- Spain. #3 in Pleasant climate. ...
- New Zealand. #4 in Pleasant climate. ...
- Italy. #5 in Pleasant climate. ...
- Costa Rica. #6 in Pleasant climate. ...
- Brazil. #7 in Pleasant climate. ...
- Argentina. #8 in Pleasant climate.
- Medellin, Colombia. Temperature: 64.4 to 82.4 degree Fahrenheit. ...
- Nice, France. Temperature: 80.6 degrees Fahrenheit on average. ...
- Loja, Ecuador. Temperature: 78.8 to 86 Degree Fahrenheit. ...
- Kunming, China. ...
- Sydney, Australia. ...
- Malaga, Spain. ...
- San Diego, California, U.S.
- Sweden. #1 in Quality of Life. #5 in Best Countries Overall. ...
- Denmark. #2 in Quality of Life. #10 in Best Countries Overall. ...
- Canada. #3 in Quality of Life. ...
- Switzerland. #4 in Quality of Life. ...
- Norway. #5 in Quality of Life. ...
- Finland. #6 in Quality of Life. ...
- Germany. #7 in Quality of Life. ...
- Netherlands. #8 in Quality of Life.
- JAPAN (Climate Risk Index: 5.5) ...
- PHILIPPINES (Climate Risk Index: 11.17) ...
- GERMANY (Climate Risk Index: 13.83) ...
- MADAGASCAR (Climate Risk Index: 15.83) ...
- INDIA (Climate Risk Index: 18.17) ...
- SRI LANKA (Climate Risk Index: 19)
While everyone around the world feels the effects of climate change, the most vulnerable are people living in the world's poorest countries, like Haiti and Timor-Leste, who have limited financial resources to cope with disasters, as well as the world's 2.5 billion smallholder farmers, herders and fisheries who depend ...